Analysis of Republican 2012 Race Now that Huntsman Dropped Out

I did a previous post about a pattern we've seen with the Republican 2012 Presidential field.
The Republican electorate gives a candidate more support than ever, then a month latter that support goes down hill and collapses at a sharp extraordinary rate.

This new Real Clear Politics (RCP) graph (above) gives us more insight into what we can predict. First, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are at their highest RCP averages as of now. Now that Jon Huntsman has dropped out, that 4% of support he managed to get will be distributed mostly to Romney because of Huntsman's endorsement of him and Ron Paul because of the anti-establishment vote despite Huntsman's endorsement of Romney. In my previous post, Romney, Paul, and Santorum had hit his highest RCP average, especially Santorum. Now, Romney and Paul's RCP average are again at a new high. Santorum however has not continued to rise unlike Romney and Paul. Now he is starting to fall. I correctly predicted he would be first among these three to loose the rising momentum and collapse. I think now Santorum has officially reached his peak and point of collapse. He will fall down slightly higher than the numbers Rick Perry is at right now mainly because he's smarter than Perry which isn't saying much.

As for the current frontrunner Mitt Romney, he's getting close to Newt Gingrich's peak at which he collapsed. Gingrich had reached the highest RCP average peak of support. Romney is not like the candidates. Since Romney is the most well funded candidate, he probably wouldn't collapse as fast as the other candidates if he reaches his peak and point of collapse. Let's see how far his rising momentum will go.

Conservatives Don't Care About Accuracy

If your watched the Republican Debate last night, you may have heard Rick Santorum use a George Soros boogeyman attack against Ron Paul. Santorum complained about Ron Paul using a Sores-funded group in an attack ad to target Republican rival Rick Santorum.

Peaks and Collapses in the 2012 Republican Presidential Election

Notice how the 2012 Republican primary is going where the electorate gives a candidate more support than ever, then a month latter that support goes down hill and collapses.
As you can see this Real Clear Politics (RCP) graph (above), most of the Republicans candidates have reached their highest peak in the polls and then sharply gone down hill. It's happened with Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Rick Perry is practically bordering on the threshold at which Michelle Bachmann dropped out. He indicated he is staying in the race though. Mitt Romney has just recently his hit his highest RCP average in the polls thus far. Although it's unclear whether he's reached his peak and point of collapse. All eyes are on Rick Santorum now since he won second in the Iowa Caucuses. Santorum has surged to second in the polls. In the graph, his surge has sharply intersected with what could be considered Newt Gingrich's collapse. The surge is even steeper than Herman Cain's. Therefore, I predict he will collapse just as fast as Cain did. All that has to happen is a Google Search, learn why he earned the new definition of his name, and for his other radical theocratic beliefs to be known.

Putting yourself in the spotlight is needed to winning a campaign and then again it could be the key to loosing. That's what has happened in the current Republican presidential election. As more of the electorate looked into the current front runner or fast rising star, the more baggage they find about the candidate. This causes the voter to have a more and more unfavorable view about the candidate which eventually makes up their mind about who they won't vote for. Ron Paul still keeps rising slowly but gradually. He is also at his highest RCP average in the polls thus far. For this Republican primary, I think it was a advantage to stay out of the top three frontrunners spotlight early to in the middle of the campaign. This gives Paul, Santorum, and even Jon Huntsman advantage late in the campaign. As of now I suspect it's only matter of time and I suspect not much time before either Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum or Ron Paul will collapse in the polls. One of the three will fall like the rest. Again I'm predicting Santorum will be the first of these three to go.

Fox News Graphics FAIL Alert- Lists Romney Twice in Poll

I was watching Fox and Friends and they had Larry Sabato UVA Political Science professor discussing Ron Paul's successful polling.
It was between 7:40 a.m - 7:50 a.m CT today when they showed a graphics poll. Romney's name was listed twice in place of what I think was suppose to be Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich's name. The graphics poll was only on the screen for two seconds, so Fox must have realized the error.

This isn't their first similar graphics fail.
I don't have the screen shot or video for this but once I obtain it I'll show it.

UPDATED 1/7/12

Someone got it.

Lew Rockwell has Been Banned from the American Intelligence Report

Lew Rockwell

I frequently follow Lew Rockwell the American libertarian, political commentator, activist, and chairman of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. I previously linked on my blog his radio show podcast and website (LewRockwell.com). Last month, I decided to remove both his radio show and website from my blog. I came to that decision after he did a radio show promoting and endorsing harmful pseudo-scientific medical myths.

From that show's web page:

"Then, there are the harmful elements pushed upon us by the State,which we should not be getting at all, like fluoride which causes brain disorders, vaccines which cause autism and statins which inhibit healthy cells. Dr. Miller keeps close watch on government-enslaved doctors and the lying propaganda of the pill-pushers." [10/26/11 LewRockwell.com]

The American Dental and Hygiene Association has rebuked these claims about fluoride. Also vaccines DO NOT cause autism. Why that myth won't die.

After looking into what other controversial things Rockwell is into and linked to, I found other non-economics related reasons to distance myself from what could be seen by some as an endorsement of his beliefs. The reason I had his website listed and linked was for another libertarian viewpoint in my blogroll section. Unfortunately he's gone too far that it should concern libertarians as to where libertarianism will go as a movement with the influence Lew Rockwell has.

Things that should raise an eyebrow are what his columnists put on his website with his oversight. Gary North, a regular columnist for the website and a Christian Re-constructionist, has regularly been advancing 9/11 conspiracy theories whenever the 911 topic comes up. 

From Gary North:

This was posted on August 30 on one of my GaryNorth.com site's forums regarding the pancake-like collapse of all three World Trade Center buildings on 9-11:

"All three are clearly controlled demos. Everyone that views it knows it."

I cannot imagine a more inaccurate statement. Hardly anyone who views them knows "it." Almost every adult American has seen the videos of the collapse of the North & South towers. On September 11, 2001, the videos were shown over and over on the networks, all day long.
Only a handful of experts have ever publicly argued that the cause of the bildings' collapse was a system of controlled demolition. Anyone who dares to mention the pancake collapse of the third tower is rejected derisively as a conspiracy theorist. 

[...]

I have faced this all of my adult life. I started out in 1958 with a high school term paper on whether Roosevelt knew an attack on Pearl Harbor was coming. I concluded that he knew an attack somewhere in the Pacific was coming. I have not changed my mind. In 1972, when I was awarded my Ph.D. in American history, as far as I knew, I was the only historian age 30 or younger with a Ph.D. in history who believed this. Even today, I am one of maybe a dozen men with a Ph.D in American history who believe this and say so in public. [9/1/11 LewRockwell.com]

Another columnist and truther for the website is Paul Craig Roberts co-founder of Reaganomics.

The 9/11 Truth movement was not created by bloggers ranting on their web sites. It was created by professional architects and engineers some of whom are known for having designed steel high rise buildings. It was created by distinguished scientists, such as University of Copenhagen nano-Chemist Niels Harrit who has 60 scientific papers to his credit and physicist Steven Jones. It was created by US Air Force pilots and commercial airline pilots who are expert at flying airplanes. It was created by firefighters who were in the twin towers and who personally heard and experienced numerous explosions including explosions in the sub-basements. It was created by members of 9/11 families who desire to know how such an improbable event as 9/11 could possibly occur. [9/14/11 LewRockwell.com]

Roberts has also gave an endorsement of the 911 conspiracy book Debunking 9/11 Debunking  in his column on a racist website called VDARE. He has also appeared on a white supremacist radio show.

In an investigation of 2012 Presidential candidate Ron Paul's Racist Newsletter controversy by the libertarian Reason Magazine, Reason pointed to Lew Rockwell as the chief ghost writer of Paul's newsletter. Rockwell himself denied responsibility for the newsletters' contents and characterized discussion of the newsletters as "hysterical smears aimed at political enemies" of The New Republic which broke the story. So Lew Rockwell may be the source of Ron Paul's political troubles. That doesn't fare well with me on Rockwell, nor should it for anyone else who supports Ron Paul.

For these reasons, I do not list or recommend  Lew Rockwell's website for libertarian viewpoints. I still list and recommend the Ludwig von Mises Institute on libertarian economics which Rockwell is the chairman of. I'd urge Lew Rockwell and the columnists to just stick to economics and limited government. You know?....the whole libertarian thing. I can't recommend him as a columnist or his website if conspiratorial thinking is always pushed.

I myself have not gone into great enough detail into what libertarian economic policies I support and those don't. Many of them I'm deeply opposed to and support the progressive alternative. I'll discuss particular policies in future blog posts.

Ron Paul Explains Rick Perry "Grabbing" his Arm and "Assaulting" Him

UPDATE on Perryassaultgate 
Ron Paul has explained the picture between him and Rick Perry that has caused some controversy.
To my fellow Ron Paul supporters and progressive friends: Lets keep this election Swift Boating FREE.

UPDATED Rick Perry Grabbed Ron Paul's Arm During Debate Commercial Break

 Looks presidential of Perry doesn't it?

(Associated Press)

 

Apparently whatever happened during a debate commercial got tense.... physically.

RonPaul.com called the incident "Force vs. Reason".

During a commercial break at Wednesday’s Republican debate, Rick Perry and Ron Paul continued their spirited exchange on stage. Suddenly, Perry grabbed Ron Paul’s forearm while aggressively pointing his index finger towards the Congressman’s face. Alerted by Perry’s menacing gestures, Ron Paul’s bodyguard (front left) was standing by, ready to protect the Congressman. [RonPaul.com 9/8/11]

(Associated Press)

UPDATED 9/9/11
Ron Paul explains the picture.

My "Jon Stewart Slams Media Coverage of Ron Paul" Video Was Featured on the Washington Post

Today I was checking to see how my videos were doing on my YouTube channel. I noticed on my video titled: "Jon Stewart Slams Media Coverage of Ron Paul" had something at the bottom right corner that said:

As Seen On: Opinions: Washington ...

I clicked on the link that showed where my video views were coming from. The link was to a Washington Post Opinion piece by Erik Wemple.

From the Washington Post :

A note to media observers: All coverage of presidential candidate Ron Paul is bona fide coverage. Even the meta-media stuff.
A little background here: Paul scored huge in the Ames straw poll this month, a result out of whack with pre-Ames coverage that all too often ignored the longtime Texas congressman. Thus began an extended round of media-on-media stories about Paul and his lack of exposure.
Jon Stewart did a piece on it, as did Piers Morgan, as did the Washington Post ombudsman, as did Fox News. And many others, to boot. [Washington Post 8/30/11]

The link "Jon Stewart" links directly to my video of me commentating about Jon Stewart slamming the media for ignoring Ron Paul when he's doing very well in the polls and in the debates.

Here it is if you haven't seen it.

Information in the video info.

Jon Stewart Video- http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-august-15-2011/indecision-2012---corn-p...

Bachmann's Birther Problem- http://usaintelreport.blogspot.com/2011/08/michele-bachmann-endorsed-birther....

Donald Trump Poll- http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/trump-takes-lead.html

Rules of Engagement for 2012 Presidential Election

This will my second and probably my last time voting in the Presidential Election as a Republican. I've been a Republican for three years since I voted foolishly for John McCain in 2008. That was before I actually cared about and understood politics. I'll post in the future why I left the Republican Party. Here's a brief preview and reason: "The Republican Party and it's electorate have have lost their mind". My full "letter of resignation" will be detailed and lengthy.

Still being a Republican, I figured I might as well vote one last time in the 2012 Presidential Election. As many of you know Republican voters say they are not happy with the current GOP field. My personal favorites are Ron Paul and Gary Johnson. Both guys I disagree with on some issues particularly some economic issues. Gary Johnson is my first choice, but since he's not recognized enough I'm going with Ron Paul. If Paul doesn't win the primary or drops out latter I might go with Huntsman or not vote at all in the GOP primary. I'd be going with Huntsman just to give the GOP some credibility but not support him in the general election.


When it comes to the general election if any of these candidates get the GOP nomination, I'm pulling it for Obama and I'm switching to the Democratic Party. If this is what the Republican electorate is made up of now: Newts, Bachmanns, and Romneys/ Bigots, Christian Fundamentalists, and useful idiots pandering to corporate candidates, I can't be a Republican anymore.

Jon Huntsman
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Tim Pawlenty
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum

Just Say NO to Mitt Romney For President



There isn't much honesty, principle, or even sanity within the GOP 2012 field. With the exception of Ron Paul, Gary Johnson, and John Huntsman . One candidate GOP voters better make sure makes it no where near the White House is former governor Mitt Romney. Romney has got the hair, money, experience, and is in the the top four most supported GOP candidates among Republicans. But what exactly does this man have to bring upon our country? Much of it should be brought attention to and the rest is unclear giving Romney's flip flopping. Factors affecting him are of course the health care program in Massachusetts and President Obama's federal plan, abortion, gun control, immigration, gay rights, and yes... his Mormonism.