Peaks and Collapses in the 2012 Republican Presidential Election
Notice how the 2012 Republican primary is going where the electorate gives a candidate more support than ever, then a month latter that support goes down hill and collapses.
As you can see this Real Clear Politics (RCP) graph (above), most of the Republicans candidates have reached their highest peak in the polls and then sharply gone down hill. It's happened with Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Rick Perry is practically bordering on the threshold at which Michelle Bachmann dropped out. He indicated he is staying in the race though. Mitt Romney has just recently his hit his highest RCP average in the polls thus far. Although it's unclear whether he's reached his peak and point of collapse. All eyes are on Rick Santorum now since he won second in the Iowa Caucuses. Santorum has surged to second in the polls. In the graph, his surge has sharply intersected with what could be considered Newt Gingrich's collapse. The surge is even steeper than Herman Cain's. Therefore, I predict he will collapse just as fast as Cain did. All that has to happen is a Google Search, learn why he earned the new definition of his name, and for his other radical theocratic beliefs to be known.
Putting yourself in the spotlight is needed to winning a campaign and then again it could be the key to loosing. That's what has happened in the current Republican presidential election. As more of the electorate looked into the current front runner or fast rising star, the more baggage they find about the candidate. This causes the voter to have a more and more unfavorable view about the candidate which eventually makes up their mind about who they won't vote for. Ron Paul still keeps rising slowly but gradually. He is also at his highest RCP average in the polls thus far. For this Republican primary, I think it was a advantage to stay out of the top three frontrunners spotlight early to in the middle of the campaign. This gives Paul, Santorum, and even Jon Huntsman advantage late in the campaign. As of now I suspect it's only matter of time and I suspect not much time before either Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum or Ron Paul will collapse in the polls. One of the three will fall like the rest. Again I'm predicting Santorum will be the first of these three to go.
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