1/18/12

Analysis of Republican 2012 Race Now that Huntsman Dropped Out


I did a previous post about a pattern we've seen with the Republican 2012 Presidential field.
The Republican electorate gives a candidate more support than ever, then a month latter that support goes down hill and collapses at a sharp extraordinary rate.

This new Real Clear Politics (RCP) graph (above) gives us more insight into what we can predict. First, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are at their highest RCP averages as of now. Now that Jon Huntsman has dropped out, that 4% of support he managed to get will be distributed mostly to Romney because of Huntsman's endorsement of him and Ron Paul because of the anti-establishment vote despite Huntsman's endorsement of Romney. In my previous post, Romney, Paul, and Santorum had hit his highest RCP average, especially Santorum. Now, Romney and Paul's RCP average are again at a new high. Santorum however has not continued to rise unlike Romney and Paul. Now he is starting to fall. I correctly predicted he would be first among these three to loose the rising momentum and collapse. I think now Santorum has officially reached his peak and point of collapse. He will fall down slightly higher than the numbers Rick Perry is at right now mainly because he's smarter than Perry which isn't saying much.

As for the current frontrunner Mitt Romney, he's getting close to Newt Gingrich's peak at which he collapsed. Gingrich had reached the highest RCP average peak of support. Romney is not like the candidates. Since Romney is the most well funded candidate, he probably wouldn't collapse as fast as the other candidates if he reaches his peak and point of collapse. Let's see how far his rising momentum will go.

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